The Future of Tourism Accommodation

Tourism & Niagara

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The Niagara Region

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The Niagara Region is a regional municipality in Ontario, Canada, located between the northeastern end of Lake Erie and the southwestern end of Lake Ontario. The Niagara Region is comprised of 12 municipalities, including Fort Erie, Grimsby, Lincoln, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Niagara Falls, Pelham, Port Colborne, St. Catharines, Thorold, Wainfleet, Welland, and West Lincoln.

A 2021 census from the Government of Canada indicated 484,000 residents living in the region (Niagara Region, 2022). The primary economic sectors in the region include tourism, agriculture, and manufacturing (Niagara Economic Development, 2023). A technology-based sector is also emerging. The region hosts approximately 13 million visitors each year (Niagara Economic Development, 2023).

The most well-known feature of the region is the Niagara Falls, which is a natural waterfall along the Niagara River. The falls are located in the municipality of Niagara Falls. The Niagara Region is also famous for its vineyards and wine, performing arts, golf courses, as well as the largest casino in Canada (Niagara Economic Development, 2023). The Niagara Region consists of many parks, protected areas, and recreational trails.

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Theme: Regenerative Tourism

Given the project theme of regenerative tourism, our team began by conducting research and facilitating team workshops to develop an aligned understanding for what regenerative tourism means to each of us.While there is no universal definition for regenerative tourism, it can be understood generally as tourism which delivers a net positive benefit to people, places, and the planet (Dredge, 2022). From this work and based on this general understanding, our team adopted the regenerative tourism framework developed by University of Cambridge Scholar, Chloe King, in her paper, Beyond Sustainability: A Global Study of Nature-based Solutionsin Regenerative Tourism. King’s framework can be seen in the chart bellow.

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Topic: Tourist Accommodations

Our team chose to explore the future of tourist accommodations in Niagara. For this project, tourist accommodations refer to the temporary lodging of the traveling public in commercial buildings or parts thereof (Law Insider, 2022). Although our scenarios didn't solely focus on accommodations, we considered the nature of future tourist accommodations in each scenario. Additionally, Project 4's immersive designed future took place in a Niagara hotel, attracting stakeholders interested in this work.

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Team Positionality

As graduate students from various parts of the world, our approach to this project revolves around understanding the Niagara Region. However, we acknowledge that being outsiders limits our full comprehension of the local community. Our scenarios and designed future are based on secondary research and personal observations, hence reflecting our interpretations. To develop a more meaningful foresight work for the Niagara Region, it would require genuine collaboration, participation, and co-design with the local community throughout the process.

Trends & Drivers

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Drivers

Our team mapped out the most crucial aspect of tourism and tourist accommodations in the Niagara Region - the preservation of its biodiversity and natural resources, particularly the Great Lakes and Niagara Falls. This led us to reframe the original questions into one How Might We question:

"How might tourist accommodations in the Niagara Region adapt to changing climate and technological advancement, while sustaining its biodiversity and natural resources?"

We used Inayatullah's Futures Triangle exercise to generate a snapshot of the future, focusing on our preferred future, required infrastructure, barriers, and current changes and drivers of change related to our normative future. The following drivers were identified for developing our future scenarios:

• Generative AI and automation
• Automation in travel infrastructure
• Hyper-personalization
• Aging populations
• Demographic shifts
• Population growth
• Electrification of transportation
• Sustainable infrastructure development- low impact development practices
• 3D printing
• Natural resource management and governance
• Climate change
• Environmental awareness
• Clean-tech energy
• Optimization
• Globalization
• Geopolitical influence

All of these drivers were considered in the development of each scenario, but some were considered more heavily than others in varying scenarios.

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Trends

We identified five key trends that influence regenerative tourism in Niagara Region.

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Scenarios Building

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Rip Van Winkle Exercise

We began the first exercise in the scenario development process by undertaking an exploration using the Rip Van Winkle foresight exercise. The objective of this exercise was to stretch our imaginations by imagining that anything could be possible in the span of 20 years, the time frame chosen for our project. As such, each team member was tasked with imagining themselves waking up 20 years in the future and thinking about what questions we might have to try to understand what has happened and what is the context of the world in that future. The questions we developed were shared and then organized into a STEEPV+L framework.

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How Might We and Futures Triangle

The How Might We questions and the futures triangle were utilized to explore plausible futures by mapping the past, present, and future. This process involved understanding three dimensions: the influence of the past, the impact of the present, and the pull of the future. The futures triangle was particularly useful in shifting our group's mindset towards thinking beyond the present. This approach helped us generate a snapshot of the future, including our preferred future, the necessary infrastructure to achieve it, the obstacles hindering progress, and the existing trends and drivers of change related to our desired future.

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Impact Uncertainty Matrix

Upon identifying a list of drivers and parameters using the Futures Triangle, we evaluated these drivers of change and classify them according to their impact and uncertainty using the Impact Uncertainty Matrix to map them and identify the parameters which we would include in our scenario development framework.

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Dator’s Generic Images of the Future

This method of scenario building was chosen as our team had multiple parameters identified through previous steps in the process. Our methodology is highly iterative; we began with world building using the three drivers, which was followed by determining the parameters and how accommodation exists within that context.

• In the continued growth, the key drivers are technology adoption and population growth, combined with the current rate of economic growth. Continued growth archetype’s scenario development was predominantly tethered to the present condition of Niagara region.
• In the collapse archetype, we have to determine the cause of the collapse according to our key drivers - in this case the climate change. We referenced past collapses affecting tourism sites to determine the most plausible cause and scenario in relation to the Niagara Region.
• In the discipline archetype, the key drivers are climate change and technology, combined with demographic shift in regards to community diversity and aging-population in the societal system of Niagara.‍
• In the transformative archetype, the key driver is acceleration of technology adoption combined with a significant change in value.

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Causal Layer Analysis

We used CLA inductively, starting from the value system which underlays each scenario and imagining the infrastructure and the everyday litany would look like.

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Continued Growth

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Collapse

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Discipline

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Transformative

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Backcasting Process

Backcasting is a critical practice in ensuring that future scenarios are robust, realistic, coherent, and accurate. Although we aimed at developing robust and coherent scenarios, there were limitations in our process such as depth of research, timelines, and practice which impacted our effectiveness in conducting thorough backcasting for each scenario. However, each of our scenarios did consider a high-level backcast to ensure that major considerations were included and built into the accuracy and plausability of each future.

The Scenarios

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Continued Growth: Disconnected Niagara

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In 2043, Niagara's economy faces challenges during the third industrial revolution, but there are overlapping innovations in communication, transportation, and energy. Smart city investments with IoT technology have improved resource management and travel services. However, the government is grappling with cyber threats due to increased digital currency use. Biometric identification has replaced passwords for authentication.

Transportation is tightly integrated with mobility applications and electric vehicles are dominant, reducing the need for private cars. Carbon-based energy products have declined, and the region encourages carbon-to-value processes. However, there are limited incentives for the hospitality industry to adopt green practices.

The environment has suffered, with rising temperatures and reduced biodiversity. Agriculture faces challenges, leading to investments in synthetic foods and alternative markets. The Falls-view tourism district experiences overcrowding and loss of identity due to intense commercial development. The entertainment industry is influenced by AI and virtual reality, offering immersive experiences.

The continued growth scenario lacks a cohesive strategy for regenerative tourism, as individual businesses focus on capitalist culture without shared benefits.

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Collapse: New Identity, New Role

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In the late 2020s, a wave of Trumpism led to great powers withdrawing from international environmental agreements. This resulted in a blind competition in the 2030s, with industries prioritizing economic development over ecological concerns. Environmentalists' voices were dismissed in a consumer-centered society influenced by controlled media. The absence of ecological policies led to lower product prices and increased purchasing power.

However, in the late 2030s, stronger and more frequent environmental disasters occurred, and the realization of losing the battle against climate change emerged. Governments shifted focus, but the lack of international consensus hindered progress. Nowadays, Canada, including Niagara, faces tornado-prone territories and environmental challenges.

The winery industry in Niagara suffered, with significant loss of grape lands, causing struggles for local wineries. Water pollution became a wicked problem due to tornadoes carrying hazardous waste to the Niagara River and Lake Erie, straining relations between Canada and the US.

The tourism industry declined, with many attractions demolished and transformed into parking areas. Some tourists still visit due to temporary drying up of the falls and reconstruction projects, but the peak season shifted to winter.

Niagara's role in generating energy intensified, leading to new investments in wind turbines and power plants. Rebuilding efforts improved the labor market, attracting migrant workers. Real estate pricing changed, focusing on green zones rather than falls views. Niagara has transitioned into a more industrial region, akin to its New York counterpart.

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Discipline: Back to the Root

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In "Back to the Root," Niagara has transformed from a tourism-focused region to a leading agricultural hub. Indigenous values have been integrated into farming practices, improving crop production and enriching soil. The government implemented new policies to improve quality of life and create a self-sustainable country. Urban farming is mandatory, and individuals are encouraged to produce their own crops to combat food price inflation and increase resilience.

Carbon footprint tracking is strictly enforced, and Universal Basic Income benefits locals, stabilizes economic growth, and addresses homelessness. Decentralized energy grids are common, and AI automation streamlines activities in essential sectors. Foreign business ownership is regulated, with an emphasis on sustainability and community or Indigenous ownership.

Tourism in 2043 focuses on Niagara's unique natural environment and Indigenous-led activities. Casinos are banned, and service tax is replaced by an environmental tax. The number of tourists is limited to preserve the region's natural beauty and reduce carbon emissions. Tourism accommodations must adhere to strict government guidelines, including integrating local aesthetics and using ethically sourced materials.

Regenerative tourism led by Indigenous initiatives encourages tourists to engage in farming and composting activities, fostering environmental preservation and empathy for the Niagara Region. Tourist stays are limited, and longer stays require participation in regenerative activities.

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Transformative: Niagara Re-Boot

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In 2043, the Niagara Region has transformed into a data-driven, tech-integrated society in partnership with S-CORP, an international design corporation. Tourism in Niagara revolves around the tech-integration experience, where people's data is traded as currency for goods and services. The region's environmental health has improved, with green spaces, naturalized Niagara Falls, and low-impact infrastructure. Niagara's accommodations are now eco-luxury, fully automated, and provide personalized experiences through AI Assistants.

This transformation came after a decline in tourism following the Covid-19 pandemic and a national value shift towards technological advancement and AI development. S-CORP's partnership with Niagara, funded by the corporation, has led to a thriving society and renowned tourism hub. The partnership, however, has raised concerns about corporate influence and data usage for society optimization.

In this tech-integrated society, residents no longer pay taxes, and the Canadian dollar remains the primary currency. S-CORP owns much of the region's businesses and attractions, making technology a leading economic sector. The manufacturing and agricultural sectors have also benefited from automation due to S-CORP's investment. However, the partnership has led some long-term residents to leave, while tech-curious individuals have moved to the region in search of a better life.